A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but very few politicians or campaigners are willing to participate even with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Each authors two articles that strive for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions range over identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the idea that there might be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win here and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has got something to gain from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster must engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
